Is the Government shutdown effecting your life?

Checkswrecks

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I work in DC and was on-call or on assignment for every furlough, sequester, and shutdown prior to this. While I enjoy what I do for a living, it sucked working without a paycheck then, as much as being on furlough this time. It is frustrating not being able to plan for tomorrow in either time or budget. Deadlines will still be in effect when this is over and new assignments from the shutdown will be added to the backlog we already had. I would work on my backlog reports and such, but due to the Anti-Deficiency Act, I have been told to not even check my work email.

Obviously, our area has more Fed employees than anywhere else. I was speaking with a senior management friend tonight and he is fed up with entrusting his familys' financial future to an employer which has for years frozen salaries or kept increases to less than the cost of living, sequestered pay (cut pay by requiring unpaid days off), and now furloughed employees again. When we started 25+ years ago, Government was a steady employer and the annual budget process was a non-event. Neither has been that way for a while. My friend has always been a hard worker and is the corporate memory for his department, but he is going to take an early retirement and accept a job in industry.

During these days off, we've personally been using our time to get things done, such as house stuff, errands, and getting outside. I was wondering if this is what retirement must feel like, but when you are retired you know what your income is and will be. We've stopped spending, because we don't know when we will have an income and there is a good chance that we may have to carry all of our own expenses for a long time after we do get recalled.

What is more visible is that everybody else in the area has also stopped spending overnight. Talking to the manager of a siding/roofing contractor today, he related that their phone traffic cut 50% when the furlough started and sales have been slowing a bit more each day since October 1. Employees at a clothing store and a Pep Boys were talking about how noticeable the reduction in customers has been and how far their sales are off.


If you think this doesn't affect you in states far from DC, you are wrong. Since the 1980s there are fewer Fed employees for what needs to be done and the contractor numbers grew. The lack of FAA funding a couple of years ago showed that the direct contractor workforce is about 10 to 1 for each Fed employee. The Government contractors have been giving lay offs across the land and the indirect ratio of people affected is even greater. People sell to Fed employees and contractors and those people work at grocery stores, as car mechanics, at restaurants, etc. This lack of spending tax dollars cuts about a BILLION dollars from the economy every third day and it is a rippling loss of paychecks that is coming your way.

Trying real hard to keep any politics OUT of this, that's the answer to what I see.


What I believe is that the problem isn't the politicians, even if it is us who picked total ******* (or not) to represent us. Like Pogo said in the old cartoon:


We as voters increasingly buy into media messages, left or right, to think that we need extremists and hard-liners. When we vote, it's easy to forget the great church quote that "A person may try to be so holy that he is of no use to us on Earth." IF my vote or your vote goes to somebody who is so hardline that he/she can't play well with others, then we all suffer.
 

Dirt_Dad

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snakebitten said:
If it reboots, I'm thinking we'll mostly be in it together. History implies we'll show some spine. We could sure use some right now.
To be honest I'm losing faith there is much spine left. I'm not as optimistic about the outcome of the reboot.
 

Dirt_Dad

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GrahamD said:
Ok what's a reboot?
Take a look at what has happened to Detroit. They are currently the largest example of the beginnings of a reboot. Now apply that on a massive scale to the USA. It's one thing when confined to a single city or region. It's impossible to imagine what happens when applied to the bulk of a country the size of the US.
 

creggur

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GrahamD said:
Ok what's a reboot?
Lots of folks believe we are on an unsustainable path with our government running debt levels that are quickly approaching our GDP, ever-expanding entitlement programs, and our currency being manipulated by the Federal Reserve to artificially stave off high, or hyper-inflation.

At some point we will reach critical mass and the whole thing will topple down upon itself - a reboot - in a sense.

I'm not one of the doomsday folks (yet), but common sense dictates that a shrinking private enterprise system and an ever-expanding federal government coupled with demographic changes (retiring Baby Boomers) taking even more people out of the workforce, and leaving fewer-and-fewer tax payers for the number of people receiving benefits from the government is unsustainable. At some point the debt really skyrockets and with no hope of ever bringing it back down our credit rating as a nation is screwed, countries will stop lending to us, and the interest rate demanded by those who will lend elevates rapidly to the point we can't even pay the interest on our notes, we are done.

And we won't be the only ones to suffer, you take our global consumption off the world stage and everyone is likely going down with us.

Their is no intended partisan opinion in my statements, it's simple math really - when your credit card debt far exceeds your annual income and you reach a point that you can't even pay the interest, much less the principle, you lose everything... Or, Reboot, and start over from nothing.

Enough of this, I'm leaving on a week long ride on some of the best mountain roads in the southeast - my little reward for months of 65+ hour work weeks...see you guys on the other side.
 

wfopete

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saddletramp said:
I hope I can say this without sounding like a pompass ass...but...don't you have any emergency cash put away?

I depend on commission for 75% of my income so because my sales can be like a roller coaster due to the variable farm economy I'd be screwed without at least three months income put away at all times.

I guess too many in this country are running thier household budgets like congress.

Saying all that, I sure hope you all get back to work soon.
::026::

No kidding!

With this economy (and world) if folks have not learned this lesson then your penalty is you get to sell your bike/car/house to eat. This applies to pretty any tax payer not just G-contractors. Drive through a government related agency and look at the vehicles in the parking lot. Maybe some of those $40K+ SUVs and sedans should be $25K compact cars with the difference going into a saving account.
 

creggur

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saddletramp said:
I hope I can say this without sounding like a pompass ass...but...don't you have any emergency cash put away?

I depend on commission for 75% of my income so because my sales can be like a roller coaster due to the variable farm economy I'd be screwed without at least three months income put away at all times.

I guess too many in this country are running thier household budgets like congress.

Saying all that, I sure hope you all get back to work soon.
I've been on commission-based pay since leaving the military 16 years ago. As my general manager says, "Must is a mighty master." - hence my long work hours, and you learn early-on to keep a significant cash reserve tucked away for the slow times.

I see guys and gals who spend like there's no tomorrow when times are good, and then suffer mightily when things slow down. And the sad part is, in my business, the slow times are pretty predictable year-in-and-year-out. We boom from April through September, October and November are pretty steady, and December through March are pretty slow - it happens every year, and people still suffer...every year.

They take lavish vacations during our busy season missing big earning opportunities and spending like crazy, then are miserable during the winter when they go into debt to finance the holidays and suffer more until the spring when business picks up again. It's insanity, but I see it happen every year...
 

thfraser

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This is a good discussion and it has been very civil from my perspective.

Extra cash - This is a good financial principle for many folks to follow. However, life events can sometime drain this. For example some folks have gone through a very nasty and expensive divorce, had a major uncovered medical expense, etc... Even though I went through one of those events I do have some cash set aside, but it has not always been an easy road. Especially when the ex collects a very good sum of my paycheck. It can take awhile to build it up. Good credit can help during low cash times, but it is must be used with undue respect due to the trouble it can get you in.

Federal employees and contractors could be infinitely more productive if Congress and the President did their jobs and passed a budget on time. I have been in the gov' management ranks for a few years and I've spent a good portion of my time planning for shutdowns, furloughs, extra financial planning, etc... All due to the lack of a budget. Even the CR process causes undue strain. Instead of funding an activity or a contract for a year, it has to be partially funded. And then the with the undue complex financial process that the gov' has, it means that extra transactions and contractual actions need to be taken for each bit of incremental funding.

The CR process is also wrought with additional issues. Instead of passing a budget with a thoughtful reallocation of funds, it keeps the prior year funding amounts with incremental adjustments for sequestration, inflation, etc... It is relying on past budgets instead of actually working out how funds should be redistributed based on need and priorities. Changes need to be made to reduce the debt levels and balance the budget. But they should be made deliberately and incrementally. Radical short term changes could cause major issues to economy. I'm worried that my children and grandchildren will be bearing the brunt of this lack of financial responsibility.

Federal pay levels. This is an interesting one. I believe, not always true, that most of the wage inflation is in the entry level or lower grade jobs. I've worked with senior executives that were very capable that are capped out at about 165k annually. These are folks managing programs that range from 250M to a few billion. In the private sector, they would be making substantially more. In fact, many of them do leave federal service for this very reason. But some are dedicated to being public servants and don't mine making a little less.

However, our leaders have fallen into the "Let's get re-elected" trap and think about how they can stay in office, rather than addressing the country's issues. The posing is sickening. Some are looking out for our interests, but many IMO are not.

I ranted long enough. All sides have valid points. And the individual still has to look out for themselves.

Those are some of my additional thoughts.
 

Ramseybella

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Extra Cash?
Some but not as some may think you may think if one works as a Government contractor your in the big dollars, not so..
I have some friends think I should be well off yes I am better than some but not by much.
Life ups and downs? my wife was diagnosed with thyroid cancer six years ago underwent surgery and was found the cancer spread into her lymph node system.
Money is tight since then; She is on permanent disability $700.00 a month and soon to be cut back, and under a life long watch for her cancer to reaper at any time.
Insurance is my only objective in my job the money keeps us afloat I am disgraced at out government and have been for some time.
But this thread is not aimed to attack the government I asked a question about the effects and how it has effected our members.
And yes in the end it will effect all.

God Bless.. ::26::
 

TwoShots

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Utah communities surrounding the National Parks are/were hurt significantly. Envision bus loads of European and Asian customers unloading for lunch/coffee/t-shirts one day, then none the next. And the next. So yesterday our Governor struck a deal with the Feds to pay Fed park workers with State funds in order to reopen the parks. I'm guessing he'll do well with re-election.

Personal affect is certainly not as painful as some here. I had plans to hit the road on the Tenere.... a pilgrimage of sorts. My wife passed in May. With one of her last smiles, she asked me to scatter a lit bit of her at every US National Park. I managed to complete everything in Utah and Northern Arizona last month before the closures. Plans to do a South-Central California loop this month are on hold. But I'll get there.

May sound strange, but having part of her packed warmly in a pannier and riding with me for several days feels pretty good.
 

Karson

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TwoShots said:
Utah communities surrounding the National Parks are/were hurt significantly. Envision bus loads of European and Asian customers unloading for lunch/coffee/t-shirts one day, then none the next. And the next. So yesterday our Governor struck a deal with the Feds to pay Fed park workers with State funds in order to reopen the parks. I'm guessing he'll do well with re-election.

Personal affect is certainly not as painful as some here. I had plans to hit the road on the Tenere.... a pilgrimage of sorts. My wife passed in May. With one of her last smiles, she asked me to scatter a lit bit of her at every US National Park. I managed to complete everything in Utah and Northern Arizona last month before the closures. Plans to do a South-Central California loop this month are on hold. But I'll get there.

May sound strange, but having part of her packed warmly in a pannier and riding with me for several days feels pretty good.
That's a heartwarming story. Seriously. :)
 

fredz43

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TwoShots said:
Personal affect is certainly not as painful as some here. I had plans to hit the road on the Tenere.... a pilgrimage of sorts. My wife passed in May. With one of her last smiles, she asked me to scatter a lit bit of her at every US National Park. I managed to complete everything in Utah and Northern Arizona last month before the closures. Plans to do a South-Central California loop this month are on hold. But I'll get there.

May sound strange, but having part of her packed warmly in a pannier and riding with me for several days feels pretty good.
Thanks for sharing. It brings a tear. Bless you.
 

rem

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TwoShots said:
Personal affect is certainly not as painful as some here. I had plans to hit the road on the Tenere.... a pilgrimage of sorts. My wife passed in May. With one of her last smiles, she asked me to scatter a lit bit of her at every US National Park. I managed to complete everything in Utah and Northern Arizona last month before the closures. Plans to do a South-Central California loop this month are on hold. But I'll get there.

May sound strange, but having part of her packed warmly in a pannier and riding with me for several days feels pretty good.

A most noble and honorable mission. The very best of luck from us all. I know you will be successful. Good on you. R ::020:: ::008::
 

TwoShots

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Thanks for the sentiments, Gents. I'm sure she knew it would put me to having serious fun on a motorcycle for years to come. She was thoughtful that way.

So back to the regularly scheduled program: I'm not a huge fan of Jimmy Kimmel, but he summed it up good here. I especially like the end-take on the poor Congressmen who were able to keep their "essential" gym, but without towel service.

Congressional Gym Open During Shutdown
 

snakebitten

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The private sector hasn't been enjoying the advantages of the past over the public sector. In many areas the advantages are simply not there. Especially in the retirement and benefits arena.

I've been living with a temporary reduction in salary for 4+ years. Not very temporary. And no raises for more than 6 years. Private aviation, called "general aviation" took a major hit when the politicians berated those auto executives for flying in jets to testify before congress. Overnight, corporate aviation became politically incorrect and we took a 20% loss of business. Never has returned.

Politics is such a stage play today. The image of fat cats flying around in jets is just so tasty to make points with. (Never mind the fact that many of the scolders fly private regularly) but the real truth about private flight is it is a fantastic American success story. And we dominate the world. (Lots of reasons)

If you believe in redistribution of wealth, private charter and corporate flight has got to be one of the most efficient wealth redistribution mechanisms ever dreamt up. Love or hate the passenger sitting in the back, but when he-she lands or takes off, they part with a considerable amount of their worth immediately. And the long list of "average people" on the ground feed their family, pay their mortgage, and send their kids to college with that flight revenue. Most of the staff that makes up general aviation airport services are $12 hour up to maybe $40,000 year. And it's 24/7 industry, so lots of staff to run 1 single private aircraft terminal.

My point is simply the packaged spin from both sides rarely ever presents a realistic picture. And their politics cause pain in the private sector just as much as the public.

Again, I am now the ostrich. Head in sand, living my daily life. I don't listen to the chatter anymore. I'm a recovered political junkie. I get my joy from the part of life they can't take away from me. I thank them for teaching me how.

Once a man no longer fears death or poverty, you have far less influence over him.

They can all kiss my.......:)
 

creggur

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snakebitten said:
The private sector hasn't been enjoying the advantages of the past over the public sector. In many areas the advantages are simply not there. Especially in the retirement and benefits arena.

I've been living with a temporary reduction in salary for 4+ years. Not very temporary. And no raises for more than 6 years. Private aviation, called "general aviation" took a major hit when the politicians berated those auto executives for flying in jets to testify before congress. Overnight, corporate aviation became politically incorrect and we took a 20% loss of business. Never has returned.

Politics is such a stage play today. The image of fat cats flying around in jets is just so tasty to make points with. (Never mind the fact that many of the scolders fly private regularly) but the real truth about private flight is it is a fantastic American success story. And we dominate the world. (Lots of reasons)

If you believe in redistribution of wealth, private charter and corporate flight has got to be one of the most efficient wealth redistribution mechanisms ever dreamt up. Love or hate the passenger sitting in the back, but when he-she lands or takes off, they part with a considerable amount of their worth immediately. And the long list of "average people" on the ground feed their family, pay their mortgage, and send their kids to college with that flight revenue. Most of the staff that makes up general aviation airport services are $12 hour up to maybe $40,000 year. And it's 24/7 industry, so lots of staff to run 1 single private aircraft terminal.

My point is simply the packaged spin from both sides rarely ever presents a realistic picture. And their politics cause pain in the private sector just as much as the public.

Again, I am now the ostrich. Head in sand, living my daily life. I don't listen to the chatter anymore. I'm a recovered political junkie. I get my joy from the part of life they can't take away from me. I thank them for teaching me how.

Once a man no longer fears death or poverty, you have far less influence over him.

They can all kiss my.......:)
Quoted the whole thing because it meant that much. Amen, Brother!

Front-to-back nothing but truth!

Just like the service industry people in Vegas that got hurt from demagoguery over, "lavish corporate retreats" to said fair city.... Cause-and-effect seems to be lost on certain people with a certain bully pulpit...
 

saddletramp

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I can sure relate to you snake bitten! I've had my Commercial license & CFII since 1975. After trying three separate time to make a living in General Aviation I gave up. I even had an FBO in the early 90's but couldn't seem to make much of a profit.

Selling farm machinery has its ups & downs but it's much better than GA.

When times are good I stash money away & pay cash for toys. Last year I bought the S-10 & a new travel trailer . This years not as good but I can still enjoy my paid for toys without guilt.
 

GrahamD

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Good, decent conversation going on here guys. ::008::

Just from an OZ perspective.

We have just had a major poo fight in the last few years about Govt debt. (7% of GDP :D)

Opposition managed with the help of Murdoch papers to convince everyone we were heading for a wipe out.
This was helped by the fact that the Government was reducing debt at what economists were calling a "concerning rate".
Unemployment rose, as expected, as Government reduced spending. Private industry contracted, partly because of the flow on effects of less Govt spending, partly because the opposition had convinced everyone that we were all going to die real soon unless they were voted in to fix it.

They were voted in by people who never read more than the "sky is falling headlines"

Now they are in, it's suddenly not so bad and they are looking to spend more money to stimulate things by spending big on roads etc. (which is not stupid but very 1950's of them)

All it was about was power.

It is encouraging to see people discuss things with a bit more depth and impartiality than I heave seen here over the last three years.

So here is the reality.

House prices are stupid. Private debt is stupid. All the loan finance / interest payments are going to banks. People have 30% less to spend into the economy than they otherwise would on average, but in the new home buyer area it's more like 1 complete wage is gone, so furniture, appliance, discretionary spending, and yes, airline travel are all in the toilet.

The average persons Super (401K) is being charged ridiculous fees and not making that much. (banks again)

So at some point in the future, many of the current younger generation, will have no house, not much Super (401K? in the US) and someone (guess who) will have to come to the party.

Here is another thing. The Gen Y's are not interested in cars, motorbikes so much, don't have their own home so are not that interested in Mowers, furniture or any substantial house hold purchases and are mainly into I-things / gaming and internet access. They would prefer to live in a little box close to public transport and hang out at a Cafe, if they aver go out. The standard Hipster.

Nothing is going to be done about this. while 50-60 year olds are calling the shots (voting and power)

I know I am sounding like "radical youth" right now, but that is the way things are.

However, just as those born in 1900 were amazed at the free spending wastefulness of their kids, but pleased that they could, and the next generation were shocked at the lack of morals and free love of the next, and the next is amazed at how easy the Internet makes things and how much time the young waste online, this new chapter will seem like the new normal to the next generation.

I am sure that smoking will kill less, cars will slowly shrink and become more "sensible", bikes MAY become more popular, more money will be made with I-Stuff than every before and it is quite possible that young people will tend to be more satisfied with just the basic necessities as long as they have their I-worlds to live in.

This may all just happen under the noses of the current power base.

Plenty of possible futures. Just keep yourselves neutral, informed of the facts as much as possible and vote for who seems to be working with facts (if any). Plenty of very good people out there pumping out free analysis that aren't owned by some rich old white male with his own agenda. It takes work to be informed properly.

You guys probably know a bit about that, considering you probably did a bit more homework to end up with an S10, rather than the latest flavour of the month.

So I suppose what I am saying in a nutshell is that your Granparents managed with a lot less, were not necessarily unhappy and probably had more cred with the neighbors by being able to do clever things to keep things going with less than they did by buying a flashy new car/bike each year.

It's all an attitude.

The fact that I can start an argument from 12,000Km away is still pretty amazing to me. For my kids it's just as natural as that new fangled light switch thing they installed in Grannies place in 1920. Don't get me started on that satellite transmission from the moon. I mean WOW.
Now that's just called Foxtel over here. Doesn't quite inspire the same sense of awe in me.

I suppose there are people with vision and those without. Doesn't matter whether they are in Govment or the private sector.

Sorry, as far as it effects me?

So far news is filled a bit with it and I get to read some good posts on this forum, OH and the last three years of belly aching that went on here just reminds me that mass delusion and self interest are alive and well all over the world.
 

Karson

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Great post Graham, a good read. I'm sure part of America's problem right now is related to different generations with conflicting interests, but I think it is bigger than that. I'm going to focus on the House of Reps right now for the sake of my argument, but can be extended to include the Senate, too.

Right now, there is one House of Representatives member per ~720,000 people. (314 mil / 435) How can one person represent 720,000 people? They can't.

Fun fact. Up until 102 years ago, the House of Reps increased in size after each constitutionally mandated ten year enumeration so that the ratio of representatives to citizens wouldn't be too out of balance. In 1789, the ratio was 1:30,000. When the House was locked in at 435 during Apportionment Act of 1911, it was 1:100,000. Now it's watered down over 7 fold.

Source: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Apportionment_Act_of_1911

I think the Constitution was only designed to work with a true representative republic. Right now, what we have is not a Congress that represents The People. Rather, one that represents their campaign donors.

Government would be a lot more effective when the small communities actually know Rep. Dinglenuts personally and Dinglenuts would risk a grocery store ass-kickin' if they weren't doing their job.

Anyway, like I said earlier and to keep on topic, I'm considered essential, but since all the IT systems I manage are on auto-pilot since there's nobody using them, I'm bored out of my mind. Should be getting a PHAT ::) 6 day's worth pay Monday, then that's it till this is all over.

No cost of living increases for 3-4 years, no performance awards (read bonuses), and a very likely possibility that we'll be forced to increase contributions to our retirement. I am finally able to telework 2 days a week as of last year, since the fed is finally getting caught up in that regard, which is nice.

I'm not complaining, just stating the current dynamic where I'm personally at. It could definitely be worse and I don't think we got hit as hard as the private sector in 2008.
 
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