Life! (corona virus, non informative, non hysterical post)

[Checkswrecks]

On the lighter side, I figured out today how to tell society is stressed out. The evidence was in the ice cream case at the grocery store. All the good and half-good Ben & Jerry's and most of the Hagen Daz were gone, even at full price.

 

[ballisticexchris]

Really sorry to hear it Chris. Sure does bring it home and makes people pay attention when it's not just a news report.
My thoughts and prayers are with your family.

Carol and I are really spooked by this. I'm the only one going out to do shopping or getting fuel. Even then it's a risk. At least some of our stores are trying their best at keeping the shoppers spread apart. Only thing I need to get every few days are the perishables.

 

[EricV]

In many places you can order groceries delivered. Walmart, Kroger, etc. Other places are doing curb side pick up where you order and pay online and they bring it to your car at the curb. Often you can select no contact or similar for deliveries. They just leave it on the porch. Even Best Buy has curb service now in my area.

We order groceries online now. I ordered some specialty items online to be delivered by FedEx or UPS or USPS. We work in the yard. We're good cooks and enjoy variety in our repertoire, so haven't tried the GrubHub or other prepared food delivery services, but those are out there too. Door Dash, Uber Eats, etc. Lots of options. Then there are the meal packages with fresh ingredients like Blubox and others that will deliver a box of ingredients for your dinner meal with a recipe and instructions on how to prepare it.

Point is, most of us have a diversity of options. Explore them. Ask yourself if you really need to go out or not. Are their options for your perishables? Maybe not, or maybe there are. Look around and see what is available in your area. The $10 delivery fee might be worth your loved one's life. Or just their peace of mind.

 

[ballisticexchris]

Great advice Eric. Unfortunately grocery deliveries are are over 2 weeks out around here. I'm setting pretty good where I'm trying to stretch out almost a week between store visits. The renal diet is a big reason I'm forced to go out and shop. Processed foods are not good for that kind of diet.

 

[Sierra1]

I don't know about the average employees at y'alls fast food places, but I know about the ones around here. I'll be passing on drive thru or delivery. Just a sayin'.

 

[Tenman]

I ask a young working girl at a gas station if she was washing her hands alot now days. She said " I aint worried about that shit."

 

[Checkswrecks]

There's the medical side and the financial side, EACH of which gave months of warning. I'm a big student of economics because I supplement my retirement by day trading, which I've done for decades. To be a successful trader means making and understanding charts. I'm trying to explain my chart below in a way that has a usable conclusion for you all, NOT to be political.

The good economy created in '09 by Bernanke (credit to where it's due) was being offset by actual growth in GDP till 2017. That's where the Govt cut income (tax cuts) and increased spending. Basically, the data shows "good economy" of the last couple years has been a sugar high. It's been a fake, funded by borrowing from ourselves and running the debt higher, as shown in the second chart. You can see it where the SPX stock prices keep going up while the indicators go down. So again, the current market fall is NOT a surprise due to the Coronavirus. The response to the virus of stopping the economy just made the downturn faster and harder.

On the financial side, the second chart shows how Congress (not going to take sides) just said "hold my beer" when it comes to debt. This will end ugly to write off the debt. Us retirees on pensions, social security, or other people also on fixed income are going to get crucified.

The usable part of the post is to . . .
1. not chase this market, especially now that it is off the bottom, and to . . .
2. watch for an impending secondary fall, which has happened in previous collapses. See the red ovals in chart #1 and prior downturns in chart #3
For any other traders, note that we are about to hit the 200 day SMA, so the rise this week ought to hit stiff resistance soon.

 

[EricV]

I understand some of the issues you have, consider ordering now for 2 weeks out to start the process.

 

[ballisticexchris]

I understand some of the issues you have, consider ordering now for 2 weeks out to start the process.

For now I'm just going to see how things pan out. I have a few leftover N95 masks and gloves I will be wearing when shopping.

 

[Mak10]

Here is a sobering though for all of us. My wife's uncle was diagnosed with COVID- 19 just the other day. He is now in an Idaho hospital on a respirator fighting for his life. He had no underlying conditions, was an avid skier, and very fit and healthy for his age. This is a serious virus. The medical professionals are discovering that this virus can cause permanent lung damage. It's nothing to joke about.

Chris, sorry for your loss. Can you tell us the age of your uncle?

 

[holligl]

So sorry for your family's loss Chris. Especially hard as personal closure won't be possible for families anytime soon.

Sent from my SM-N950U using Tapatalk

 

[ballisticexchris]

Chris, sorry for your loss. Can you tell us the age of your uncle?

He was 84. But even at 84, he was healthy. Not sure if he was still skiing. He was doing regular hikes though and no health issues. It took the whole family by surprise. Shortness of breath, hospital, ventilator, diagnosed with COVID- 19 then passed away in just 4 days.

I'm not trying to bring religion into this, but our family is so grateful he was a Christian here on earth. It's a relief to know he is with his loved ones in heaven.

 

[Checkswrecks]

Checkswreks I too am a avid investor. I have not meet to many day traders that survived the long haul. You are a rare breed. Every investor has a strategy. You are a chart guy. However you must admit the market also runs on emotion and herd mentality, rendering in some cases charting useless.

I once got some advice from an investor 20 years back that has served me well.

1. Don't try to time the market. You are competing with super computers and whole teams of individual who have seeming endless time and resources not to mention money. They have the power to move the market.

2. Carry no debt and live below your means. Have an emergency fund that can last years.

3. Never be in a position you have to sell. And only sell on good news/ profitable situation in order to obtain a set goal.

4. Diversify

5. Understand Compound Interest. Einstein when asked what was man's greatest invention he replied Compound Interest.

This advise has served me well over the years. I have transcended credit and any debt. If I need something a house a car whatever I pay cash.

Strangely enough our current medical situation is being managed by incomplete data (Charting), therefore making surgical precision decisions is non existent. Plus we lack the governmental control to pull it off even if we had the data. For better or WORSE you have to respect what China has accomplished.

Kinda guessed we had others in the group. Sorry to differ but I have been timing the market for a long time and am part of a monthly group of technical income traders, so it can be done. The cool thing about technical trading on broad based herd mentality to me (an engineer) is that like history, there are repetitive patterns and probabilities. You can see a little of it in my first chart.

I learned the hard way to specialize and rather than individual stocks only focus on four ETFs up or down; SPX, ERX, GLD, JJG. For me to be successful took a long time and cost a lot of money in mistakes before somehow it just became a routine and each individual in our group has an unique way of doing things that only works for them. Few of us in are a position for more than a day or two, are happy making a little in each trade, get out, and over time it adds as a form of compound interest that ends up paying the bills. The one thing we are unanimous about is the need to never ever ever play an "I think..." or hunch. No emotions and absolutely no trying to guess what the news means. It's all just patterns and calculations, combined with disciplined money management for stop loss values. I like the phrase about how the true professional card players never gamble.

 

[RCinNC]

There are some interesting articles lately about a scientist named Michael Levitt. He's a Nobel Prize winning biophysicist who was able to accurately predict the peak of the Chinese outbreak and when the virus would begin to subside, and even calculated the eventual death toll with some uncanny precision. He's not an epidemiologist, which in this case provides him with a unique perspective; he examines complex systems using quantum mechanics. I won't go into detail on what he's stated; you can look him up on line and see what his findings were when he examined the outbreak in China. In a nutshell, his examination of the statistics relating to the pandemic indicate to him that the outbreak here in the US will not be a long and protracted event (on the order of months/years), and that the common idea being encouraged in the media that the streets will be lined with bodies is not an accurate reflection of his examination of the numbers.

As for investing, I've been doing it for a long time now. My financial planner always laughed at me because I kept some very large cash reserves rather than investing more of it. It doesn't seem quite as funny now.

 

[RCinNC]

Dealing with the Covid-19 shelter at home restrictions has been a truly "wrenching" experience....

 

[Checkswrecks]

Too clean too clean
My eyes are hurting from the brightness!

Seriously - Really like your DIY stand.

 

[RCinNC]

Actually for me, this is kind of disorganized. If it wasn't a rental, there'd be pegboards on the walls for tools, with each tool having an outline so I'd always know where it went. If I were to pan around the the area behind where I was standing to take this photo, you'd see shelves with big plastic tote boxes containing my tools, with each box labeled with its contents. Plus a shelf of toolboxes with each box labeled with the type of jobs the tool box is meant for (wiring, soldering, bicycle repair). And still, with all this organizing, I still manage to lose my car keys a couple times a week.

The DIY bike stand worked out pretty well....this is its maiden voyage. Once you bolt on the crossbar, it all becomes really solid and stable.

 

[Scoop47501]

Fennelig
I have been applying the same financial strategy as you.
My father taught me to live with in your means and keep you debt in check long before Dave Ramsey was all over the radio.
Have not financed a car or motorcycle in twenty years. Paid off my mortgage when I was 40 years old by making extra principle payments every month and have that emergency fund as well.
Now at 63 and retired we feel more secure living on SS and investments.
The rest is up to God.

 

[Dirt_Dad]

Too clean too clean
My eyes are hurting from the brightness!

This should make your eyes relax. No clean or bright here in this Covid workstation.

 

[RCinNC]

I keep taking more parts off...I might need a 12 step program to put a stop to this madness....