Thanks for taking the time to post hobdayd. I just downloaded the book and look forward to exploring his ideas.
The coming economy and us
- Thread starter Checkswrecks
- Start date
Good stuff Hobdayd - Thanks for somebody new to listen for.
fredz43 said:
[font=verdana, arial, helvetica, sans-serif]If a president wants to start a war, they should have to immediately announce the tax increase needed to pay for the war. Let's face it, our federal budget never includes funds for future (unforeseen) wars. All he has to say is this. The media will take care of the rest. [/font]
"We want to invade <insert middle east country> and need to immediately increase taxes xx%, which will cost the average American $xx.xx next year. If the war goes longer than a year, the tax to pay for the war will increase to xx%, which will cost the average American $xx.xx next year. If we underestimated this number, I will stand here and explain the reconciliation tax."
draig126
Member
Great initial post and for those that have participated, great responses. It appears that this exercise was initiated as a way of becoming a better investor (to support / better enjoy your retirement). I by no means am a great investor but I do try as my goal is to retire comfortably (I've got quite a few years to go unfortunately 
). Your analysis, outside of the politics of the matter, is very good. I do understand the gravitation to include politics as a factor in past results and future outcomes as politics does play a role but it is not the only one as the system which your attempting to model is very complex. Unfortunately most get quite passionate when it comes to politics and that alone can de-rail the best of attempts to model the system.
Keep an eye, as you are, on debt (Government and Private). Keep an eye on bonds and treasuries. Keep an eye on M&A activity (currently going nuts, sorry my opinion, in the electronics industry). Lastly, don't fight the fed (Federal Reserve). Ultimately, money must have velocity as that alone is what keeps everything afloat (my opinion).
::009::
As always, do your own research and do what you feel is best. It is strange but regardless of your gains or losses you will likely be happy as long as you do what you want to do rather than do what others suggest. ::010::
). Your analysis, outside of the politics of the matter, is very good. I do understand the gravitation to include politics as a factor in past results and future outcomes as politics does play a role but it is not the only one as the system which your attempting to model is very complex. Unfortunately most get quite passionate when it comes to politics and that alone can de-rail the best of attempts to model the system.Keep an eye, as you are, on debt (Government and Private). Keep an eye on bonds and treasuries. Keep an eye on M&A activity (currently going nuts, sorry my opinion, in the electronics industry). Lastly, don't fight the fed (Federal Reserve). Ultimately, money must have velocity as that alone is what keeps everything afloat (my opinion).
::009::
As always, do your own research and do what you feel is best. It is strange but regardless of your gains or losses you will likely be happy as long as you do what you want to do rather than do what others suggest. ::010::
78YZ - If it were only that easy.
Draig - Sound like there is some background and depth to your comments. Thanks!
Draig - Sound like there is some background and depth to your comments. Thanks!
Grumpy
Getting old is not for wimps
Anyone know where all this money we are constantly borrowing comes from?
fac191 is absolutely right. We are borrowing against our own retirement and medical needs.
Text from here: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/National_debt_of_the_United_States
"The measure of the public debt is the value of the outstanding Treasury securities at a point of time that have been issued by the Treasury and other federal government agencies."
"There are two components of gross national debt:[1]Debt held by the public, such as Treasury securities held by investors outside the federal government, including those held by individuals, corporations, the Federal Reserve System and foreign, state and local governments.
The big dark blue at the bottom of the chart and is from YOU. You have Social Security (FICA and other things) and medical (various names) taken out of your gross paycheck and those are in that blue bar. Plus, retirement accounts for the majority of companies hold a lot of treasuries on the assumption that the treasuries are safe. So the short answer to your question is that about half of the debt is from YOU. When you get a social security payment or Medicare/Medicaid payment (most of us will), when you expect your company or the typical 401 to give you a retirement check, you are expecting the Govt to pay back what it borrowed from you.
For now the Government uses your money to pay it's bill and then (indirectly) gives you an IOU in the form of Treasury securities. Foreign Governments also have historically bought a lot of treasuries, because the US has never missed a payment. China and then Japan are the biggest borrowers.
The problem is that the Government keeps spending so much, and the interest payments have gotten so much for the debt (meaning Social Security in the value of the dollars when you draw SS), that the IOUs are now 106% of what we collectively make as a country (GDP).
This is the point where the debates get into cutting taxes versus cutting all the things the Govt spends money on.
Social security info: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Social_Security_(United_States)
Text from here: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/National_debt_of_the_United_States
"The measure of the public debt is the value of the outstanding Treasury securities at a point of time that have been issued by the Treasury and other federal government agencies."
"There are two components of gross national debt:[1]Debt held by the public, such as Treasury securities held by investors outside the federal government, including those held by individuals, corporations, the Federal Reserve System and foreign, state and local governments.
- Debt held by government accounts or intragovernmental debt, such as non-marketable Treasury securities held in accounts administered by the federal government that are owed to program beneficiaries, such as the Social Security Trust Fund.
- Debt held by government accounts represents the cumulative surpluses, including interest earnings, of these accounts that have been invested in Treasury securities. The governments market funds ideas for the improvement of debt and loss."
The big dark blue at the bottom of the chart and is from YOU. You have Social Security (FICA and other things) and medical (various names) taken out of your gross paycheck and those are in that blue bar. Plus, retirement accounts for the majority of companies hold a lot of treasuries on the assumption that the treasuries are safe. So the short answer to your question is that about half of the debt is from YOU. When you get a social security payment or Medicare/Medicaid payment (most of us will), when you expect your company or the typical 401 to give you a retirement check, you are expecting the Govt to pay back what it borrowed from you.
For now the Government uses your money to pay it's bill and then (indirectly) gives you an IOU in the form of Treasury securities. Foreign Governments also have historically bought a lot of treasuries, because the US has never missed a payment. China and then Japan are the biggest borrowers.
The problem is that the Government keeps spending so much, and the interest payments have gotten so much for the debt (meaning Social Security in the value of the dollars when you draw SS), that the IOUs are now 106% of what we collectively make as a country (GDP).
This is the point where the debates get into cutting taxes versus cutting all the things the Govt spends money on.
Social security info: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Social_Security_(United_States)
Dogdaze
Well-Known Member
So to summarise, save what you can, hide it, bury it, do whatever, just make sure you have some for when you retire, because if you rely on any government pension kicking in....... think again, they already spent it, not just the USA, but the UK and many other countries. The Swiss have a decent system, but even that will become shakey some day.....................
hobdayd
Member
Well you can save it as cash...but it will rapidly be worth nothing once the currency is undermined.
The best thing you can do is to convert it into valued asetts- not stocks / shares but tins of canned tuna, guns & ammunition, fuel, chocolate, toilet rolls, sugar etc...
I am sure not many people in recent history in our developed economies have gone into a supermarket to find the shelfs stripped bare but I have in the UK in the 70's when the unions held our country to ransome for energy and we had secondary picketing. 3 days and the supermarkets were empty, we had no electricity to the house so were cooking by gas with candlesome for lighting.
Some curriencies will be worthless. Take your pick... $, ¥, £, €! My bet is on the € first!
Again, what will save the US is vast land and energy resources. But most people will be broke and barely able to buy basics...like toilet roll! Look back to the great depression..
Again, back to humming the tune...always look on the bright side of life.. .. ......
Learn to fish and hunt...
The best thing you can do is to convert it into valued asetts- not stocks / shares but tins of canned tuna, guns & ammunition, fuel, chocolate, toilet rolls, sugar etc...
I am sure not many people in recent history in our developed economies have gone into a supermarket to find the shelfs stripped bare but I have in the UK in the 70's when the unions held our country to ransome for energy and we had secondary picketing. 3 days and the supermarkets were empty, we had no electricity to the house so were cooking by gas with candlesome for lighting.
Some curriencies will be worthless. Take your pick... $, ¥, £, €! My bet is on the € first!
Again, what will save the US is vast land and energy resources. But most people will be broke and barely able to buy basics...like toilet roll! Look back to the great depression..
Again, back to humming the tune...always look on the bright side of life.. .. ......
Learn to fish and hunt...
draig126
Member
Yup, on the satirical side this is what I envision will be there once I retire (if I make it there )), many years down the road....
You have to be in the “game” (investing) if you plan to retire comfortably, which ultimately is where the responsibility should really be (with the individual).
Beyond cash / investments the most important thing to have is skills (nobody can take those away from you). Learn how to grow and preserve vegetables and if possible raise / butcher small animals, chickens pigs etc. (yes I know this is more problematic for those in large urban areas). I always remind my dad that I feel fortunate to have grown up on a dairy farm as if things really do get bad we can at least feed ourselves.
)), many years down the road....
You have to be in the “game” (investing) if you plan to retire comfortably, which ultimately is where the responsibility should really be (with the individual).
Beyond cash / investments the most important thing to have is skills (nobody can take those away from you). Learn how to grow and preserve vegetables and if possible raise / butcher small animals, chickens pigs etc. (yes I know this is more problematic for those in large urban areas). I always remind my dad that I feel fortunate to have grown up on a dairy farm as if things really do get bad we can at least feed ourselves.
When the Soviets went through though what was essentially the same with the devaluation of the Ruble in about 1989-90, we had to buy meals for our Russian counterparts when they'd come for meetings. IF they could send somebody, the person had to stay in really run-down motels where they could not go out after dark and they could not afford to eat at McDonalds. Every day we would invite them to one of our houses when they were here in DC. The guys who had been about to retire had to stay working (a couple were really old) because they lived in the cities and had no other way to provide for their families. Store shelves were empty and if they knew somebody raising vegetables they talked about trading family possessions for basics.
It was pretty grim, especially now that I'm the guy who will probably be retiring before too long and Karen just did. I guess my nervousness was behind starting the thread. But I'm more concerned for what the combination of cutting taxes AND borrowing trillions more is going to do to the kids.
http://www.politico.com/story/2016/11/deficit-donald-trump-republicans-231372
Hopefully, the fiscal conservatives in Congress will be able to blunt this financial attack. Any type of trade cuts with China or Mexico will make it worse because those will subtract from our GDP. Meanwhile, I totally agree about the need to educate ourselves, be active, and stay positive. With spending the borrowed money, the next couple of years ought to be a nice chance to save up.
It was pretty grim, especially now that I'm the guy who will probably be retiring before too long and Karen just did. I guess my nervousness was behind starting the thread. But I'm more concerned for what the combination of cutting taxes AND borrowing trillions more is going to do to the kids.
http://www.politico.com/story/2016/11/deficit-donald-trump-republicans-231372
Hopefully, the fiscal conservatives in Congress will be able to blunt this financial attack. Any type of trade cuts with China or Mexico will make it worse because those will subtract from our GDP. Meanwhile, I totally agree about the need to educate ourselves, be active, and stay positive. With spending the borrowed money, the next couple of years ought to be a nice chance to save up.
shrekonwheels
New Member
A significant reason we are so far in the red is the loss of a tax base, taxes are down. With that said having both Contracted with the Federal and State Government as well as working for the state government over the past few years directly, I am here to say there is zero logic in their fiscal decisions. The Feds also spent at reckless abandon, while the state (at least of Montana) seems to have trouble allocating money where it is needed.
Tradable goods is always a interesting debate, I struggle to understand why I would want to trade guns and ammo to people who may try to shoot me for everything else afterwards.
I am thinking more in the lines of stock piling alcohol and weed, keep my opponents drunk and stoned is the best bet.
Tradable goods is always a interesting debate, I struggle to understand why I would want to trade guns and ammo to people who may try to shoot me for everything else afterwards.
I am thinking more in the lines of stock piling alcohol and weed, keep my opponents drunk and stoned is the best bet.
Dogdaze
Well-Known Member
They sell weapons to keep the fight going, therefore making more money then go in and 'help' them with rebuilding and increase their debt to whoever is the 'helper'. Let's face it, most governments are corrupt, the difference between western countries and those that we consider despot dictator led countries is that the those countries don't lie about being corrupt.shrekonwheels said:
If it makes you feel better, the UK is at 90% GDP, France is 98%, Greece is at 176% and Spain at 136%, the consensus among the experts is that expenditure and debt should not be more than 80% of GDP........ so in summary most countries are FUBAR'd
shrekonwheels
New Member
ha ha, I was talking about on a personal level. I used to stalk pile weapons and Ammo with the intent of trading or selling them when shit hit the fan, then what I said previously occurred to me. Regardless of how we do business, invade etc. in other countries I would far, far rather be invaded by a western government than otherwise. It also is to note that at one time the west seemed to try not to blow civilians up and recognized hospitals as safe zones, not sure what happened with that in the Syria mireDogdaze said:
oh, do not worry. the new administration plans on gutting our department of education, the next generation of Americans will not be coherent enough to build any kind of technology. Just be patient and all the really good technical jobs will come to you.
Can you post a link to where I can read about the next adminstration gutting the department of education, I would like to read about it? From what I've seen out of the current crop of twenty year olds, if it doesn't have a key board and a touch screen, they can't deal with it. I know several electricians and plumbers that make way more money than the guy with a college degree programing computers. If I was coming out of high school now I would head straight to trade school and learn to do something with my hands that the genesis can't comprehend.shrekonwheels said:
hobdayd
Member
A misunderstanding...I was not advocating selling the means of defending yourself!
Last time I looked the Global population is growing and resources are getting scarcer. Climate change coupled with collapsing economies does not make for a happy future.
I need to ride more while I can.
Last time I looked the Global population is growing and resources are getting scarcer. Climate change coupled with collapsing economies does not make for a happy future.
I need to ride more while I can.
Standby diver
Member
Hell, at least the soil is still fertile. As far as this whole economy thing goes, I'll enjoy the good while I can. But when the bottom drops out on this thing--which I may see since I am only 27--i am just glad I know how to farm, get clean water, know medicine, and have some pretty decent weapons training.
Sent from my Nexus 5X using Tapatalk
Sent from my Nexus 5X using Tapatalk
shrekonwheels
New Member
I just do not understand why people do not read more about the candidates they support.OldRider said:
http://www.businessinsider.com/how-donald-trump-could-eliminate-the-department-of-education-2016-11
http://www.nytimes.com/2016/11/23/us/politics/betsy-devos-trumps-education-pick-has-steered-money-from-public-schools.html?_r=0
As someone who has worked agriculture and Construction for the bulk of my life as well as operated my own construction company, I ask you how many retired construction workers you see able to live a meaningful life not in pain?
My father pushed me to be a plumber, I loathed plumbing and ended up still doing the outside end of it in dirt working, I hated every minute of it. I hate being dirty, sore and wading in other peoples feces. A plumber? Well new plumbing is not bad, other than sniffing the carcinogens from glue and hot plastic, but working on old systems, crawling in a crawl space, having a leaking toilt dripping in your face is less than palatable.
Welding? Well some people find it rewarding, but it is very, very hard on your health as you are literally inhaling poison. Mind you both are honorable jobs as you are keeping society going, however myself I will push for my kids to be the ones looking outside the window, at the poor bastard working in the heat or cold.
They can make a little less money for their future (in reality they will make overall more money in their lifetime) rather than spend it trying to get their health back as they age.
I encourage you to read this article for more incite into this argument from an employment sense.
Construction means instability for the most part.
One of the largest factors to this being America has trouble investing in its infrastructure, while the bulk of Europe makes it a priority. When it is a priority there is a high constant demand for tradesman as the work is never ending as it is constantly reinvested within itself. We both know, at least we should this is not the case with Modern America, even in a small capacity. Neither party has been particularly warming to this.
Now with that said the world is changing in its dynamic, what worked in the previous century, just as the century before that will not necessarily apply to tomorrow. In other words Tech jobs are hard to fill as Americans are under, or over educated for those jobs. We had the under educated problem back in the previous century where people were literally not smart enough to operate levers and buttons as they came about, which is how our current educational system came about.
Overall technology will increase 2000 times over what it did in the previous century, nobody knows that that means as we went from horse and buggy to the moon, from a wind up phone to the internet. We can now fax synthetic Organs for transplants, how on earth will under educated kids possibly keep up? They cannot
Right now in America those eivl migrants are filling those tech jobs as they come from countries hwere education is still a way out of poverty, they gobble up those jobs with reckless abandon while the modern right pushes against knowledge, Grab a shovel boys!
Come now, it is time to look to the future, learn to work on those robots, learn to program them, make yourself valuable.
Maybe, maybe not, overall despite population growth less people are starving, not more. We have more than enough food and recourses if we are smart to feed the world, and the growing population.
This is a interesting interview.
<iframe width="560" height="315" src="https://www.youtube.com/embed/aud6n52dJCY" frameborder="0" allowfullscreen></iframe>
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=aud6n52dJCY
On the other end my thoughts of the current election.
http://thoughtsoftheages.blogspot.com/2016/11/as-america-decends-into-rabbit-hole-can.html
shrekonwheels
New Member
As a world traveler, I would argue more to learning negotiate skills. I think those of us who have done a significant amount of travel, especially adventure travel worry less about the zombie apocalypse syndrome as we have already been to those areas and did not need to dig a trench with a firearm.Standby diver said:
Mind you I am not saying to be armed, I am, but I am saying what is between your ears will decide the outcome of a situation far more often than the Kevn Costner wasteland solutions.
If you have not watched Hotel Rwanda, I would encourage you to do so. BTW, Rwanda is now a prospering country, pretty mind blowing to be honest.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=hY-5kFoO8hQ