Regardless of a new model being out the same rules apply as have done for decades.....twinrider said:I doubt it. I'm guessing that in 2-3 years a new improved S10 will be out then with more ponies, better brakes (cornering ABS) and probably semi-active suspension. And your ES will be worth a couple grand more than the older one IF there are good solutions for replacing the worn ES shocks.
* Vehicles depreciate quickly from new and then slower over time.
* Popular / reliable models will hold better value
* A "facelift" year model will definitely be more attractive, so in this case a used 2014 will have a bigger gap to a 2013 in 3 years time (2016) then say a 2012 would have had to a 2012 3 years on (in 2016)
When looking at old model on "new plate" (in the UK the registration plate indicates the bikes age - this alone will add some value when comparing a 2013 sold in 2013 to a 2013 sold in 2014) there will be a bigger gap, but similar rules apply....
If you bought a 2012 model in 2013 VS a 2013 model in 2013 and assume same mileage / condition a few years later in 2016 the difference would be minimal as there were no functional differences, both would have dropped from a £12k list to about £8k.
That scenario makes a lot of sense to buy last years model, a savvy buyer may try and knock a couple of hundred quid off because the bike is an "older" model, but you are talking a max of £300 - £400 compared to a saving of £1000 - £2000 on the discounted bike. A 2012 bike registered in 2012 would still be worth about £7k so there is no way buying the discounted bike would leave you out of pocket.
When big changes occur like with the S10 in 2014 there will be a much bigger gap, even the non ES will hold a fair premium in a few years time as it has more power, uprated clock and cruise control.
So I do agree the later model may also be a bit easier to sell as the chances are a lot of people would be happy to pay the small extra premium for the features buy buying a 2014 over a 2013, I also think it may shift the entire used value a little...
Perhaps in 3 years time a 2014 may hold £8200 instead, the popularity of the newer model keeping prices a shade keener, it could also mean that the older bikes drop a couple of hundred so the 4 year old 2013 is only worth £6800 instead of the expected £7000 - where would this leave a 2013 registered in 2014 as discussed here....
I would say almost certainly now much nearer the value of a 2013 registered 2013, so maybe £7200 -but again if you got £2000 off buying the older model you are still onto a winner.