I'm not sure it is a question of stability rather than the strength of the rear subframe. My usual rear passenger weighs about 135 lbs. The upper third of her body begins at about the level of the top case on my bike. Now of course I have no idea what the upper third of my passenger weighs, but I'll be conservative and say it would be 1/4 of her total body weight (approx 34 pounds). So the upper third of her body, about 34 pounds, would be sitting even higher than the load usually in my top case. Now, her presence doesn't affect the stability of the bike (unless of course she leans the wrong way), so would a load that weighs 34 pounds in the top case, adversely affect the stability of the bike simply because it's about 8-10 inches further to the rear? Are there any physics or engineering majors in here who can answer yay or nay? My thought is that the shape of the top case could affect the handling more than the weight (unless you tried to put 100 pounds in there). Some of those big bulbous round cases can probably induce some weird effects during high speed riding, or the dirty air behind a tractor-trailer.
I'm thinking that the load limits are more of a subframe strength issue. I know from being on the FJR forum that guys there had experienced cracks and actual breaks in the rear subframe, and they attributed it to overloading the top case (imagine the stress on the subframe of a 40 pound load bouncing up and down constantly on a crappy potholed road). I'm not saying that it's conclusive, or that it compares to the subframe on the S10, but it did give me something to think about when I was designing my rear mount for my large touring case (a large Duratool case). I added a couple support struts to the underside of my case, which extend down to the rear crossover bar on my HT pannier racks and attach with a couple of threaded knobs and quick release pins. It helps to transfer some of the load away from that part of the subframe, and also helps to prevent the levering effect that can be caused by a heavy load at the end of the subframe.
I would guess that, when I'm on a trip, there's 25-30 pounds in the large topcase. I've never experienced any handling problems; so far, I haven't had any mechanical issues with the subframe.