Life! (corona virus, non informative, non hysterical post)

[Don T]

There is a few things I would like to point out regarding the current Covid-19 situation.

• We are past the point where stopping the virus is an option.
• All the restrictions put in place is only to slow down the spreading, to give the healthcare system a chance to keep up.
• How much we need to slow the spreading depend more than anything on the capacity of the local/national healthcare system - this is also why different countries/states apply different levels of restrictions.
• Every government tries to find the balance between speed of spreading and the economical downsides connected to the implemented restrictions.
• If the implemented restrictions is too strict, the spreading is slowed down too much - we need the Covid-19 epidemic to run its course (at a pace where the healthcare system can keep up) and for the population to reach herd immunity before this thing is over.

Denmark was one of the first countries in Europe to react to the Covid-19 threat. Very early on while we still only had a few tested positive, very few hospitalized and no dead, the government closed down the schools, public buildings, many high risk businesses (restaurants, hairdressers, tattoo parlors, massage parlors etc.) and put a lot of restrictions in place including social distancing and no visitors at nursing homes and hospitals - and they closed the borders for all non essential travel.

The result is that now only 3 weeks after the the restrictions was put in effect, we are starting to see a decline in the number of people hospitalized and killed by the virus. At no point have the number of people hospitalized with Covid-19 been higher than approximately 25% of our healthcare systems capacity.

Now some people have started questioning if our government did too much too soon. No matter what you do, some will always complain

NB.
While social distancing is an important tool in the current situation, it's also very important to remember to boost your immune system by staying generally healthy both physically and mentally, as it is very likely that you will be exposed to the virus at some point no matter what you do (if you want to live something reminiscent a normal life within the next year and a half). So remember to keep your distance to other people, but get out of the house to get some fresh air, some exercise (walking, running, cycling) and do stuff that makes you happy.

 

[Eville Rich]

I heard a nice analogy to variations between States or regions and their self-isolation policies - it's like having a special peeing section in a swimming pool. I have concerns that those states or regions late to the game will cause a general issue for everyone that extends the whole thing But time will tell. Regardless, no locality/region/state/country is an island.

Eville Rich
2016 S10

 

[Sierra1]

I've heard that generally you don't die from COVID-19 itself, it's the secondary infections, or as Eville Rich said, an existing condition exacerbated by the virus. I read that one of the reasons that New York has such a high infection rate, is that they weren't instructed to stay home until last week; they were told to keep going out and living their lives as recent as two weeks ago. But, it's New York City. . . . that's a bunch of people. . . . real close together. . . .so I don't know if it would have made a difference. The same article advised that California, and Washington, are doing well because they reacted quickly with the "lock down order".

 

[Checkswrecks]

Until just the last few weeks, NOBODY in the US would have thought a city or State-wide order would ever be put in place. That was for communist regimes and dictatorial places - or so the feeling went. But it works and since there are people actually dying near most of us, people seem to understand and the distancing should help.

Google shows Puerto Rico was first on March 15, followed by California on March 19, Jersey 3/21, NY 3/22, then WA 3/23. There are so many people packed in such a small amount of real estate in NY that it's no wonder they have been the lead in numbers of cases. Most States came after those, so most of the country is still within the 2 week incubation.

The day of the lockdown here, I was talking to a business owner I deal with regularly and we've been distancing for the last month plus. During the conversation he related how his daughter (32) came home from vacation mid January with the WORST bronchitis and that he got it a few days later. He described the COVID19 symptoms perfectly and it turns out her vacation was in Hong Kong. I knew he had something in the end of January and kept working, so I wonder how many others he gave it to. It pisses me off that I have talked to this guy a half dozen times and he never thought to mention it till now in passing.

 

[SHUMBA]

I got something from a major convenience store chain about them no longer allowing personal cups at the soda fountains. "Please use our provided cups." I wonder if buffets here in the South will take a down turn because of this renewed grasp of potentially poor practices? (Buffets are huge here, every third gas station seems to have one. And not roller food, but full on grits, biscuits, greens, tenderloins, catfish, chicken, etc.)

Hi Eric,
I did a ride across the expressway above Toronto today, to visit my older sister who is on her own. Mostly truckers with a few cars and no sign of police so I put my Tenere to the test. It cruises very well and stable at speeds of 145 kilometers per hour or in the vicinity of 100 mph. Sister and I had a great distanced face to face visit in her driveway.
I packed a thermos of coffee and a padkos, er, a I mean a lunch, consisting of a bagel with bacon cheese lettuce and to add flavour some chutney.
We shall adapt.
Oh yes, be sure to pack some toilet paper and hand sanitizer if you can find some.
SHUMBA


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[Sierra1]

Saw an article today that showed a newspaper front page article about Kobe Bryant's crash. The article pointed out a column to the left of the picture. The column was talking about five cases of the corona virus in the US; it was a January paper. On a positive note: the news showed a 104 year old WW II veteran was celebrating his birthday today AND recovery from COVID-19. Also, the above chart shows the deaths in Spain went from 2,207 to 10,935. BUT, the number of recovered went from 3,355 to 30,513. There is light at the end of the tunnel. . . . and, it doesn't appear to be a train.

 

[holligl]

Oh yes, be sure to pack some toilet paper and hand sanitizer if you can find some.
SHUMBA


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Here's your solution:

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[EricV]

I've heard that generally you don't die from COVID-19 itself, it's the secondary infections, or as Eville Rich said, an existing condition exacerbated by the virus. <snip>

This is a really good explanation of how COVID-19 kills. He uses some humor, but lays it out in clear terms anyone can understand. Worth watching. It will open some eyes on risk factors and why they add to your personal risks if you catch the virus. In some cases, it is true that secondary issues kill, but it would appear that it's more of a case of the secondary pre-existing conditions making it easier for the virus to quickly proceed to it's worst conclusion.

 

[EricV]

Hi Eric,
I did a ride across the expressway above Toronto today, to visit my older sister who is on her own. Mostly truckers with a few cars and no sign of police so I put my Tenere to the test. It cruises very well and stable at speeds of 145 kilometers per hour or in the vicinity of 100 mph. Sister and I had a great distanced face to face visit in her driveway.
I packed a thermos of coffee and a padkos, er, a I mean a lunch, consisting of a bagel with bacon cheese lettuce and to add flavour some chutney.
We shall adapt.
Oh yes, be sure to pack some toilet paper and hand sanitizer if you can find some.
SHUMBA

Not sure what that had to do with the conversation. Last time I was at Sams, (big Costco like warehouse store for groceries, etc, ((last week)), they had closed down the inside food court and taped off the soda fountains. I suspect most people will be packing their lunch for rides for a while to come, including a period shortly after this all ends.

You might want to start packing a trowel for your future trips so you can dig a cat hole when you need to use that toilet paper. Not so many public bathrooms accessible any more.

 

[EricV]

There is a few things I would like to point out regarding the current Covid-19 situation.

• We are past the point where stopping the virus is an option.
• All the restrictions put in place is only to slow down the spreading, to give the healthcare system a chance to keep up.
• How much we need to slow the spreading depend more than anything on the capacity of the local/national healthcare system - this is also why different countries/states apply different levels of restrictions.
• Every government tries to find the balance between speed of spreading and the economical downsides connected to the implemented restrictions.
• If the implemented restrictions is too strict, the spreading is slowed down too much - we need the Covid-19 epidemic to run its course (at a pace where the healthcare system can keep up) and for the population to reach herd immunity before this thing is over.

Denmark was one of the first countries in Europe to react to the Covid-19 threat. Very early on while we still only had a few tested positive, very few hospitalized and no dead, the government closed down the schools, public buildings, many high risk businesses (restaurants, hairdressers, tattoo parlors, massage parlors etc.) and put a lot of restrictions in place including social distancing and no visitors at nursing homes and hospitals - and they closed the borders for all non essential travel.

The result is that now only 3 weeks after the the restrictions was put in effect, we are starting to see a decline in the number of people hospitalized and killed by the virus. At no point have the number of people hospitalized with Covid-19 been higher than approximately 25% of our healthcare systems capacity.

Now some people have started questioning if our government did too much too soon. No matter what you do, some will always complain

NB.
While social distancing is an important tool in the current situation, it's also very important to remember to boost your immune system by staying generally healthy both physically and mentally, as it is very likely that you will be exposed to the virus at some point no matter what you do (if you want to live something reminiscent a normal life within the next year and a half). So remember to keep your distance to other people, but get out of the house to get some fresh air, some exercise (walking, running, cycling) and do stuff that makes you happy.

That was a good post with a lot of solid information. The one exception is the herd immunity link. It's unlikely that humans will have any immunity to coronaviruses for several reasons. Wrong RNA, (animal, not human), the vast variety of coronaviruses and the ability of it to mutate. There are already multiple strains of COVID-19. Any immunization will be for a specific strain and unlike the flu shots, probably won't gives any partial immunity to a new strain. China has already seen second wave infections from people coming home to China from other areas.

No one has the answer to this for sure now, certainly not me, but time will tell. I believe it's unreasonable to think we humans will develop herd immunity to this type of virus.

 

[AVGeek]

Mark Twain once said there are three types of lies: lies, damn lies and statistics. While Nevada was one of the earlier states to lock down, and our numbers seem to be manageable, I know that there are very few test being conducted. We have a population of about 3 million statewide, but only about 16,000 people have been tested, and at least a portion of that population has been tested multiple times, since our state health department has reported over 19,000 tests administered. The other issue I have been having is the lack of reporting of the number of recoveries, and the average time to recovery. I went looking for a source for these details, and this chart shows a good breakdown of what's happening right now:

COVID Live Update: 144,167,456 Cases and 3,064,957 Deaths from the Coronavirus - Worldometer

Live statistics and coronavirus news tracking the number of confirmed cases, recovered patients, tests, and death toll due to the COVID-19 coronavirus from Wuhan, China. Coronavirus counter with new cases, deaths, and number of tests per 1 Million population. Historical data and info. Daily...

www.worldometers.info

As far as recovery, it looks like the average time is 2 weeks for those with mild and moderate symptoms, with the more severe cases taking anywhere from 3-6 weeks, which is partly why this virus is so deadly (Based on the current numbers from WHO, the death rate worldwide is about 5.4%). As the infection rate goes up, so does the number of people requiring hospitlization, eventually overwhelming the healthcare system, as we have seen in Italy, Spain, and now New York. Compounding this is the data that suggests a large portion of people infected will remain asymptomatic but contagious, so actual exposure rates are currently unknown.

I've been focusing a lot of the economic disaster side of this pandemic, since thats where I have been directly affected. However, for both the sake of the health of humanity, as well as the ability to meet our basic needs, I certainly hope we find a way to overcome this pandemic soon...

 

[Cantab]

That was a good post with a lot of solid information. The one exception is the herd immunity link. It's unlikely that humans will have any immunity to coronaviruses for several reasons. Wrong RNA, (animal, not human), the vast variety of coronaviruses and the ability of it to mutate. There are already multiple strains of COVID-19. Any immunization will be for a specific strain and unlike the flu shots, probably won't gives any partial immunity to a new strain. China has already seen second wave infections from people coming home to China from other areas.

No one has the answer to this for sure now, certainly not me, but time will tell. I believe it's unreasonable to think we humans will develop herd immunity to this type of virus.

Swedens doing the experiment for us.

Stuff

www.stuff.co.nz

Coronavirus: To Swedes, it's the rest of the world engaging in a reckless experiment

OPINION: Faced with what many see as a manageable illness, Sweden has decided that lockdown is the real risk.

www.stuff.co.nz

 

[SHUMBA]

Not sure what that had to do with the conversation. Last time I was at Sams, (big Costco like warehouse store for groceries, etc, ((last week)), they had closed down the inside food court and taped off the soda fountains. I suspect most people will be packing their lunch for rides for a while to come, including a period shortly after this all ends.

You might want to start packing a trowel for your future trips so you can dig a cat hole when you need to use that toilet paper. Not so many public bathrooms accessible any more.

EricV is absolutely correct, there is no where to go poop or pee in these current times.
I'm very fortunate as I live in a relatively low populated area so there are a lot of open spaces to conduct one's business. Kinda like a goin back to nature.
Heck, when I was in the service on patrol, we just dug a hole in the dirt and let 'er go in there.
We shall persevere.
SHUMBA



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[Nikolajsen]

and you guys are getting smashed at the moment.

That is for sure, and I also wish everybody around the world, all the best.
But if we set it up according to population (% of all), USA is actually doing better than many other country..at least right now

 

[Checkswrecks]

There's a lot of current talk about re-opening the economy versus whether that it might be too early andre-start the spread to create a second wave. The second wave reportedly has been a problem in China. Here are two sets of curves from the last 24 hours that most of us have seen arguing FOR keeping the stay-at-home order in place. Figure that much of the country is now about 2 weeks into this.

On the flip side is the financial crisis. Trump is a business owner and listening to other business owners, so thought it would be good to share the two arguments about WHY they so much want to re-open. Again, on the bottom axis, figure that much of the country is now about 2 weeks into this.

Unemployment relates to lake of consumption, which is what keeps the US economy afloat so the below is obviously not good. They are counting on using the trillions of new debt make this a V bottom faster recession for the financial crisis.

 

[holligl]

Here is another good site for tracking:

ArcGIS Dashboards

ArcGIS Dashboards

gisanddata.maps.arcgis.com

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[Mak10]

I get the logic of social distancing, to slow the spread of a the virus. But the basic fact is that the virus is here.

What is the plan for those that get infected and recover? Do you think they are going to stay at home? Why would they?

How long are people going to self isolate? A month, six months, a year? If this virus is as bad as everyone is making it out to be, it is not going away. It’s not a question of if, but when. Our society has become one where interactions with other people is necessary. How many are totally self sufficient? Grow all your own food? Have a cow? A well or other water source that is not dependent on someone maintaining it?

It is scary how something like this has brought the world to its knees. The face of war might have a different face.

 

[holligl]

Trump alluded to ventilator statistics, but didn't give a number. According to what I found, only ~1/3 of patients going on ventilation will get off alive.

Ventilators Are No Panacea For Critically Ill COVID-19 Patients

Ventilators can be lifesaving for some critically ill patients, but they're no panacea. The experience so far with COVID-19 is that the majority of patients put on ventilators don't survive.

www.npr.org

I would point out this is a relatively small sample size, but it is not good.

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[2talltoo]

Trump and numbers don't compute.

 

[Nikolajsen]

What is the plan for those that get infected and recover? Do you think they are going to stay at home? Why would they?

As far as I know, nobody know if an earlier infectet will get immun....yet.
Thats why they might stay at home..